Impact of the US-Israel-Iran Conflict on China's Steel Exports: Striving for Stable Supply Amid Market Fluctuations
With the escalation of the US-Israel-Iran conflicts, global steel trade has been affected by geopolitical tensions, leading to fluctuations in steel prices and logistics adjustments. As a professional Chinese steel export enterprise, we aim to clarify the impact of the conflicts on China's steel exports for our foreign customers, and emphasize that we can provide stable supply and reasonable solutions amid market changes, helping customers better adapt to price fluctuations and ensure smooth order cooperation.
I. Short-Term Impact: Logistics Obstruction, Order Pressure, and Disturbance to Core Markets
The short-term impact of this conflict on China's steel exports is mainly concentrated in two aspects: logistics and transportation, and order performance. Among them, the blocked shipping in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz has become the core pain point. As an important global shipping hub, the Strait of Hormuz undertakes the main channel for China's steel exports to the core Middle East market. In 2025, China's steel exports to the seven Persian Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, etc.) reached 13.9497 million tons, accounting for 11.72% of the country's total steel exports, making it the second largest regional market for China's steel exports.
Affected by the conflict, major global shipping companies have suspended booking for routes related to the Strait of Hormuz, or significantly increased war risk surcharges. Some ships already en route have been forced to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in a 14-20 day extension of the voyage, a surge in freight rates by 3,000 US dollars per container, and a skyrocketing 200% in war risk insurance premiums. The sharp rise in logistics costs and the uncertainty of transportation cycles have directly led most domestic steel exporters to suspend quotes for new orders in the Middle East, only maintaining the performance of long-term agreement orders. More than 60% of traders have fallen into an order freeze, and small and medium-sized export enterprises have almost temporarily withdrawn from the Middle East market.
From the perspective of export varieties, plates have been the most affected. Plates account for 61% of China's steel exports, and the Middle East is one of the core export destinations for plates. Affected by the suspension of infrastructure projects in the Middle East and the decline in purchasing willingness, the monthly average supply reduction of plates may reach 770,000 tons, making it the steel category most affected in the short term. It is worth noting that China's direct steel exports to Iran are extremely small, with an export volume of only 266,700 tons in 2025, accounting for 0.22% of the total exports. The direct impact is negligible, and the core impact is concentrated on the major trading partners along the Persian Gulf.
II.Enterprise Response: Steady Layout to Seize Opportunities and Hedge Risks
Faced with the current complex market environment, our company has formulated targeted response strategies based on industry trends and its own advantages to steadily promote the steel export business. On the one hand, we optimize logistics solutions and actively expand alternative channels such as land-sea intermodal transport and multimodal transport, such as transshipping goods to the Middle East by land through Pakistan's Gwadar Port, to reduce the impact of blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, we communicate with shipping companies and insurance companies in advance to lock in logistics costs and risks and ensure the smooth performance of long-term orders.
On the other hand, we deepen the diversified layout of the market. While consolidating long-term cooperative customers in the core Middle East market, we increase efforts to develop emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, reducing dependence on a single regional market. Relying on the cost performance advantage of China's steel, we seize the market gap left by Iran's withdrawal. At the same time, we closely monitor the progress of the conflict and market price fluctuations, optimize the product structure, focus on promoting the export of high-value-added steel, and enhance product competitiveness to hedge the pressure brought by rising costs.
In addition, we will rely on the support of national policies to stabilize foreign trade, make full use of new formats and channels such as cross-border e-commerce and overseas economic and trade cooperation zones to expand business space. At the same time, we will strengthen collaborative linkage with domestic steel mills to accurately connect market demand, achieve efficient matching of the supply chain, seize development opportunities in risks, and provide stable and reliable steel supply services for global customers.